Field wire No.1 — PONS: revenue, burns, shorts

Posted a scene of the PONS buyback wallet running a TWAP. A TWAP spreads a large order over time and buys in small slices instead of all at once. By the author's count it buys about $37K on the market every 15 minutes and burns it — roughly $148K an hour and $3.5M a day. In tokens, that is 230K an hour and 5.5M a day, or 0.55% of total supply. The author also wrote that they have no idea how long this TWAP is set to run.

Why it matters — Buyback burns are the substance behind ‘buy pressure’. But they stop once the wallet runs dry. Watch the balance as closely as the pace.

“I have no idea how long this TWAP is set for but supply is getting burned at an incredibly rate right now.”— @lbexplorer, from the original post

LB refilled the table posted the day before, one day on. Trading volume, revenue, market share, treasury deposits and treasury balance all came down a notch. that1618guy wrote that revenue has kept sliding since the peak revenue day five days earlier ($1.8M), and that their model put this day slightly under $1M as well. Their yardstick: a business built to last has to clear its peak revenue day again.

Why it matters — Revenue is the fuel for buybacks. The revenue curve bends before the burn curve does. The burn pace in item 1 holds only while this table holds.

Wrote that the day's revenue had passed $1.34M before the day was even over, and lined up annualized revenue of $201.96M, a market cap of $434M and a buyback wallet of $3.7M side by side. The claim is that the market cap is cheap relative to revenue, and the post closes by asking how long the market can ignore it. That is close to a call. We relay only who claimed what.

Why it matters — ‘Annualized’ means one day multiplied by 365. Multiply near the peak revenue day and you get the biggest number possible. As item 2 shows, revenue was already on the way down.

Caution: ‘undervalued’ is a verdict, not a fact. Keep revenue figures and value judgments on separate shelves.

Reported that the largest on-chain PONS short (@loraclexyz) swung from a $6.57M unrealized loss to a $1.4M profit as the price fell. In the same account's Sept 5 post, that position was short 17.79M PONS ($16.31M) with a $6.57M unrealized loss. It added that @mlmabc had tried to gather a team to hunt the position — pushing the price up to force a liquidation — but that the window now looks closed. Rise (@_rise) also posted an update on their own $310K short, but the content is only in an image. Not confirmed.

Why it matters — In on-chain derivatives markets, other people's positions sit in a public ledger. That is why ‘hunting’ works. A beginner who uses leverage shows their own liquidation price to everyone.

The leverage trading platform Phoenix announced that $STONK and $PONS can now be traded with leverage. The line ‘the launchpad wars are here, who wins’ frames the two tokens as rivals. This is the exchange's own listing notice, and the attached link is its own onboarding page.

Why it matters — A leverage listing hands tools to both longs and shorts. Short-side reversals like item 4 can now happen here too, and a chain of liquidations triggering liquidations becomes possible.

kenji.hl wrote that they sold under 20% of their holding to recover the initial investment and take some profit, and that their conviction is unshaken. The line that it could reach $10B is a call. We relay it as a claim only. Ishida amplified it: this person picked PONS at a $300K market cap and it was at $750M a month later, so they are ‘following before the next one’. ogle posted a screenshot of adding six figures in dollars on the dip. All three are personal-account stories we could not verify.

Why it matters — ‘Conviction posts’ usually appear after the principal is already out. Track record → follow → next call: that chain of following is the channel beginner money moves through.

“i sold a small portion of my bag to recover my initial investment and take some profits …”— @kenji_hl, from the original post

An observation that it is not just PONS but the whole launchpad token group taking a rest. Among what the author calls ‘LONG coins’ — the group that ran first — the small one (NUDES) is down more than 80% from its recent high, AI has come down about half, and MOO is knocking on its high again, according to chart screenshots. The author's view: too many names were launched across Robinhood chain, Solana and BNB chain, so a cooldown is only fitting. The closing line that ‘the pain is mostly over’ is sentiment. In the quoted earlier post, the author said retail buying ‘the laptop meme’ would get hurt. That appears to be the same token as our sheet No.0002 LAPTOP (ALARM), but not confirmed.

Why it matters — Read one token's drawdown alongside the tokens from the same boat. Tokens born on the same launchpad tend to run together and fall together.

+16% in 24 hours, daily volume above $155M, holding above $0.70, set up for a reversal after the pullback. Textbook promotional grammar, pushing PONS. The closing ‘worth watching’ is close to a call. We relay it as a claim only.

Why it matters — It helps to know the skeleton of the promo post that shows up right after a pullback. A percentage, a volume figure, a ‘key level’, a ‘worth watching’. The four almost always travel together.